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Экономические прогнозы РБА не помогли паре AUD/USD вырасти



Начало торгового дня рынок встретил с публикации протокола заседания Резервного Банка Австралии, которая не повлияла на настроения инвесторов — национальная валюта продолжает уступать доллару США. Исходя из содержания протокола, чиновники австралийского Центробанка в основном обсуждали экономические перспективы. Стоит напомнить, что в 3 квартале объем ВВП продемонстрировал сокращение на 0,5%. Эксперты отмечают, что спад краткосрочен и вряд ли повторится, а экономика уже в октябре-декабре продемонстрирует рост на 0,5%.
Итоги расчета прироста ВВП за 4 квартал будут опубликованы 1 марта. Но не стоит забывать, что многое зависит и от состояния ключевого торгового партнера Австралии — Китая. Поэтому участники рынка также ожидают роста ВВП Поднебесной.
В то же время в строках документа не содержалось никаких конкретных прогнозов относительно дальнейшего темпа роста инфляции. Чиновники Резервного Банка Австралии только указали на то, что показатель не достиг целевой отметки в 2%. По расчетам экспертов, медленно, но верно инфляция будет двигаться все-таки к намеченной цели.
В целом протокол нес в себе оптимистичный характер, однако не оказал значительной поддержки австралийскому доллару.
Пара AUD/USD снижается сегодня, опустившись с уровня 0.7690. Австралийский доллар в противовес западному конкуренту достигает отметки 0.7661. Аналитики отмечают, что доллар США давит на своих конкурентов после слов представителя Комитета по операциям на открытом рынке ФРС. Глава Федерального резервного банка Филадельфии Патрик Харкер отметил, что в марте повышение процентной ставки возможно, и не стоит отходить от намеченных целей трехкратного ужесточения монетарной политики.
Этот комментарий и послужил толчком для роста американского доллара против конкурентов. https://www.instaforex.com/ru/

GBP/USD expected to retreat to early lows



Brexit is not as terrible as experts see it.
Yesterday, the Confederation of British Industry released upbeat data on the UK industrial sector.
According to CBI experts, UK industrial trend orders rose to 8 points in February. The latest reading was the strongest since February 2015. That was also above forecasts as the market was quite pessimistic and expected the indicator to stay unchanged.
This strong performance was caused by a cheap pound. The recent decline of the pound significantly increased the competitiveness of British goods, which has a positive impact on external demand. And this is only the beginning.
The British pound opened the new trading week with an upward trend. On Monday, the pound/US dollar currency pair reached 1.2480. The growth was initiated by market reaction to a weak greenback.
The low volume of trading during the American session amid President's Day in the US allowed the British pound to consolidate near the resistance level. Nevertheless, experts in technical analysis believe that the British pound will retreat to a previous low of 1.2253, seen on January 18. https://www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USDX for February 21, 2017

The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows in the short term. As explained in the previous analysis there are a lot of chances that the low at 99.25 was a cycle low and a new uptrend has started. Key for this bullish scenario is the level of 99.25.

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The Dollar index bounced off the 50% retracement. Resistance is the recent high at 101.80 area. Breaking above it will be a bullish sign and will decrease the chances of success of the bearish Head and Shoulders pattern explained in previous posts.

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Black line – neckline support

Green line – trendline support

As explained in the previous posts the low at 99.25 is very possible an important long-term low as the wave 4 could already be complete and the next legup can already have started. Resistance is at 101.70 at the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). Last week the prices got rejected there. We could still be forming the right hand shoulder, but the bears will soon need to break below 100.35 in order for this scenario to still be valid.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of gold for February 21, 2017

Gold price remains above critical support and below short-term resistance. On a break above $1,240-45 I expect a minimum target of $1,280 to be achieved if not at $1,320. Trend remains bullish.

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Black line – resistance

Blue line – support

Gold continues to trade above the Ichimoku cloud and above the trend line support. Resistance is at $1,240-45. Breaking it will be a bullish short-term signal. Trend remains bullish despite the short-term consolidation. Bulls do not want to see support at $1,225 broken.

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Gold price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud on a daily basis. This confirms bullish trend on a daily level. If Gold price manages to break to new short-term highs our target would be an equal leg up at a minimum at $1,280. If the upward move gets extended by 1.618% we should expect $1,320 to be reached.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 21, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range as the bias remains bullish. The pair is consolidating but is still trading above its key support at 1.0000, which should limit the downside potential. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.

As long as 1.0000 holds as a support, look for a further upside toward 1.0050. A break above this level would call for a further advance toward 1.0075.

Resistance levels: 1.0075, 1.0100, and 1.0135

Support levels: 1.000, 0.9975, and 0.9930

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 21, 2017

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NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair is consolidating around its 20-period and 50-period moving averages and is trading below its key resistance at 0.7190, which should limit the upside potential. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. Even though a continuation of technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. As long as 0.7190 holds on the upside, the pair is likely to return to its next support at 0.7130. A break below this level would call for a further decline toward 0.7110.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7130. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7110. The pivot point stands at 0.7190. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7235 and the second one at 0.7260.

Resistance levels: 0.7235, 0.7260, and 0.7260

Support levels: 0.7130, 0.7110, and 0.7070

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Эксперты уверены в развороте графика GBP/USD



Не так страшен Брекзит, как видят его многие эксперты.
Вчера инвесторов порадовала информация относительно оживления промышленного сектора Великобритании.
Согласно данным, представленным экспертами Конфедерации британских промышленников, за февраль месяц баланс промышленных заказов вырос до 8 пунктов. Это самое максимальное положение показателя с февраля 2015 года, а также выше прогнозов. Рынок был настроен весьма пессимистично и не предвидел изменения положения индикатора.
Столь позитивная динамика в отрасли сложилась благодаря дешевому фунту. Недавнее падение фунта заметно увеличило конкурентоспособность британских товаров, что положительно сказалось на внешнем спросе. То ли еще будет!
Новую торговую неделю фунт начал с восходящим трендом. В течение понедельника график котировки фунт/доллар дотянулся до отметки 1,2480. Очевидно, что это реакция рынка на слабый доллар США.
Низкий объем торгов на американской сессии в связи с празднованием Дня президента США позволил фунту консолидироваться вблизи уровня сопротивления. Тем не менее, эксперты технического анализа убеждены в сохранении отрицательной динамики и прогнозируют возобновление падения котировки к минимуму от 18 января — к отметке 1,2253. https://www.instaforex.com/ru/

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 21, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expecteв to trade Further upside. The pair is trading above its rising 50-period moving average, which plays support role and maintains the upside bias. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Additionally, 140.80 is playing a key support role, which should limit the downside potential. As long as this key level is not broken, look for a further upside toward 141.95. A break above this level would call for a further advance toward 142.40.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 142.40 and the second one at 142.40. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 140.50, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 139.80. The pivot point is at 140.80.

Resistance levels: 141.95, 142.40, and 143.00

Support levels: 140.50,139.80, and 139.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Hong Kong Inflation Accelerates Slightly In January

Hong Kong’s consumer price inflation accelerated marginally in January, after remaining stable in the previous two months, figures from the Census and Statistics Department showed Tuesday.

The consumer price index rose 1.3 percent year-over-year in January, faster than December’s 1.2 percent steady rate of increase.

The underlying inflation, which excludes one-off relief measures of the government, also climbed slightly to 2.1 percent in January from 2.0 percent in the prior month. This was mainly due to the larger increases in the charges for package tours around lunar new year.

Food prices grew 2.8 percent annually in January and transport costs went up by 2.4 percent. At the same time, clothing and footwear prices registered a decline of 2.9 percent.

“Looking ahead, inflation pressure should stay contained in the near term, given soft import prices and moderate local cost increases. The Government will continue to monitor the inflation developments closely, particularly its impact on the lower-income people,” a government spokesman said.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

Eurozone Private Sector Growth Hit Near 6-Year High

The Eurozone private sector growth improved markedly to hit a near six-year high in February, flash survey data from IHS Markit showed Tuesday.

The composite output index rose to a 70-month high of 56.0 in February from 54.4 in January. The latest reading was the highest since April 2011 and well above the expected reading of 54.3.

Growth accelerated in both manufacturing and services to rates not seen since early-2011. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed unexpectedly to 55.5 from 55.2 in January. The reading was forecast to fall to 55.

The services PMI improved to 55.6 in February, while it was forecast to remain stable at 53.7.

Job creation was the best seen for nine and a half years, order book growth picked up and business optimism moved higher, all boding well for the recovery to maintain strong momentum in coming months. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures continued to intensify.

“The rise in the flash PMI to its highest since April 2011 means that GDP growth of 0.6 percent could be seen in the first quarter if this pace of expansion is sustained into March,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com