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Crude Oil Ends Week Above $50 Despite OPEC Uncertainty

Crude oil prices inched higher Friday, preserving weekly gains as OPEC met in Vienna to discuss output cuts.

Oil’s rally stalled amid uncertainty over the outcome of the meeting.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Russia and OPEC can wait until at least January before announcing further production quotas.

Earlier in the week, Kuwait’s oil minister said the oil market was already on the way to re-balancing.

November oil rose 11 cents to $50.66 a barrel, for a weekly gain over 0.4%.

At one point, oil touched a 4-month peak near $51.

U.S. crude inventories rose for a third straight week, by 4.6 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 15, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for September 22, 2019

USDJPYH4.png

Overview

The USD/JPY pair found difficulty to surpass 112.80 level, to rebound downwards clearly and attack 111.75 level now. This hints the price has to return to the main bearish trend after the bullish correction that it witnessed recently. Stochastic is moving downwards on the chart of four-hour time frame that supports the chances of continuing the bearish bias in the upcoming sessions. Please note that the next target is located at 110.90, while the bearish trend will remain valid unless breaching 112.80 and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between 110.50 support and 112.50 resistance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 22, 2017

GBPJPYH4.png

Overview

The GBP/JPY pair achieved the first upward target at 152.80 to form a good barrier against a new bullish attack. The pair is about to start some correctional trading as appears on the chart. Let me remind you that it is important to hold above 150.00 support to decrease the chances of suffering intraday losses and repeat the pressure on the mentioned barrier until finding the chance to record additional targets that start at 154.65. On the other hand, breaking the initial support will confirm forming a correctional bearish bias, so the pair can move towards 147.80 before achieving a new upward target. The expected trading range for today is between 150.80 and 152.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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China bans cryptocurrency trading


Last week, China announced that all cryptocurrency exchanges in the country are obliged to stop all transactions and notify users about the closure. The government also prohibited registration of new users.
By Wednesday, September 20, exchanges were required to notify users about the methods of funds withdrawal and ensure the protection of investors’ interests.
Earlier, James Dimon, JP Morgan Chase Bank CEO, called the bitcoin “a fraud” and said that if any JPMorgan traders were trading the cryptocurrency, he “would fire them in a second”.
In early September, the Chinese authorities banned individuals and organizations from raising funds through ICO. The People’s Bank of China sees such a scheme as illegal financing.The material has been provided by portal MT5.com – www.mt5.com

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EUR flexes muscles against USD (22.09.2017)



Today, the single European currency is rapidly advancing against the US dollar. The euro/dollar pair nearly touched a monthly high. Having hit 1.20, the euro/dollar pair corrected downward to 1.1967. Experts say the single European currency found support from preliminary PMIs of the eurozone and Germany. According to the Markit research group, Germany’s manufacturing PMI climbed to 60.6 in September, the expected reading was 59 points. So, the economic powerhouse of the eurozone logged the sharpest monthly improvement in business conditions since April 2011. Besides, the services PMI rose to a six-month high of 55.6, much stronger than market expectations. Investors also cheered the strong composite output index for the eurozone. The expansion in the manufacturing sector was the greatest in the recent 6.5 years. The services sector’s business activity showed the biggest growth since May. As a result, the composite output index jumped to 56.7 points in September. The market-moving event today was a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi. The euro/dollar pair could have made corrections amid expectations for Draghi’s statements. Investors were keen to find out his remarks on further monetary policy. Instead, the policymaker expanded on youth unemployment in the eurozone. Nevertheless, Mario Draghi highlighted the robust economic recovery across the eurozone. On the whole, his speech will provide the euro with extra support until the trade close today and at the start of the next week. https://www.instaforex.com

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North Korea’s actions give Japan ‘very strong alert’


Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Nobuyuki Hirano North Korea said that the latest missile launch by North Korea gave Japan “a very strong alert”.  
The missile flew over the northern island of Hokkaido and landed in the Pacific Ocean east of Cape Erimo. The launch was the second to fly over Japan in less than a month.  
“Japanese citizens and public have been accustomed to a long-lasting peace, and they believe peace is always there, but this is not necessarily the case,” Hirano said. 
He also stressed now it was time for Japan and United States as well as other countries to come together and say clearly that they would not allow North Korea’s “unlawful conduct”. 
Following the latest launch of the missile towards Japan, Asian stock indices showed a brief decline. Earlier this month, a hydrogen bomb test in North Korea sparked a short-term sell-off. 
The recent missile launch was “not a real escalation of what has happened so far,” Woon Tian Yong, an analyst at Informa Global Markets said. “This is not something we have not seen before. Markets are not going to take this too seriously.”
Last week, the United Nations Security Council unanimously approved new sanctions against North Korea, imposing a ban on the nation’s textile exports and capping imports of crude oil. The material has been provided by portal MT5.com – www.mt5.com

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Dubai launches world’s largest solar power project


The world’s largest Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) project will be implemented in Dubai. According to GulfNews, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, launched the project on Saturday.
A $3.9 billion contract to build a 700 megawatt solar power plant was awarded to a consortium comprising Saudi and Chinese contractors. 
It will include the world’s tallest solar tower capturing the sun’s energy, which will stand 260 meters tall. 
The government expects to boost the share of renewable energy sources in Dubai’s gross power production to 25% by 2020 and to 75% by 2050. 
The material has been provided by portal MT5.com – www.mt5.com

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Eurozone inflation accelerates to 1.5% in August


Eurozone consumer prices rose by 1.5% on a yearly basis in August, Eurostat said. This marks the fastest pace of growth since April 2017. However, it is still below the European Central Bank’s target level of 2%. 
In July, euro area’s consumer prices advanced by a 1.3% rate. 
The August score matched the preliminary estimate and economists’ expectations. 
On a monthly basis, prices edged up by 0.3% in August. 
The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile energy prices, fresh food and alcohol prices, increased by an annualized 1.2%. The index matched the July pace of growth. 
Energy prices rose by 4% year-over-year after a 2.2% increase in the previous month. Food prices, beverages and tobacco prices jumped by 1.4%, the same pace as in the prior month. Services costs saw a 1.6% rise in August. 
In the EU member countries, inflation rose to 1.7% on a yearly basis and to 0.2% month-on-month. 
At its latest monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank left its inflation forecast for 2017 at 1.5% and cut inflation outlook for 2018 to 1.2% from 1.2% and to 1.5% from 1.6% for 2019.The material has been provided by portal MT5.com – www.mt5.com

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Bears return to commodity marke (22.09.2017)



Oil prices are likely to close this trading week in the positive territory. WTI crude rose above $50.60 a barrel, and now it started a slight correction. Analysts believe that WTI will finish the trading week near $50.40. Today Baker Hughes is expected to publish data on drilling activity in the US. The last week report indicated a reduction in the number of oil and gas rigs in the country. Analysts see it as a signal for a possible reduction in oil production.
Meanwhile, Brent is trading near the April high at $56.39 per barrel. Today, market participants are waiting for the meeting of the OPEC Technical Committee in Vienna, where oil producers will discuss Nigeria and Libya joining the OPEC deal to cut global oil production. Anyway, experts note that new counties will contribute to better implementation of the OPEC deal.
In addition, commodity currencies also resumed an upward trend. The US dollar/ruble pair is under the bearish pressure and trading today at 57.56. The US dollar is weakening against the ruble amid growth in oil prices, as well as the start of the tax period in Russia, which will begin next week.
The additional demand for Russian assets is also caused by very successful organization of the federal loan bonds auction by the Ministry of Finance. The Russian loan bonds provide investors with 7-10% of annual income.
During the next trading week, the Russian national currency is likely to reach fresh highs against the US dollar. Experts are sure that oil will also continue to grow next week. https://www.instaforex.com

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*Crude Oil Rises Further Above $50

Sep 22 at 20:03 UTC

1.1943/0 (+0.03%) H 1.2001 L 1.1937

Support levelsResistance levels
S3S2S1R1R2R3
1.17511.18241.18701.20161.20621.2135

1.3523/79 (-0.41%) H 1.3595 L 1.3493

Support levelsResistance levels
S3S2S1R1R2R3
1.33051.33881.34411.36051.36581.3741

112.07/45 (-0.34%) H 112.53 L 111.65

Support levelsResistance levels
S3S2S1R1R2R3
110.27110.95111.39112.75113.19113.87

151.54/2.73 (-0.78%) H 152.76 L 151.00

Support levelsResistance levels
S3S2S1R1R2R3
149.10150.02150.62152.46153.06153.98

1.1589/90 (-0.01%) H 1.1622 L 1.1559

Support levelsResistance levels
S3S2S1R1R2R3
1.14021.14731.15181.16601.17051.1776

0.7961/30 (+0.39%) H 0.7985 L 0.7908

Support levelsResistance levels
S3S2S1R1R2R3
0.78330.78810.79120.80100.80410.8089
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Analysis of Gold for September 22, 2017

analytics59c50c580038e.png

Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,295.00. According to the 30M time frame, I found rejection from intraday resistance at the price of $1,300.00, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Buyers lost momentum and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,288.45 and $1,280.75.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,301.60

R2: $1,303.45

R3: $1,304.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,298.65

S2: $1,297.40

S3: $1,295.65

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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Евро возвращается к максимумам (22.09.2017)



Ралли единой европейской валюты против доллара США сегодня набирает обороты. Популярная на рынке Форекс пара едва не вернулась к максимумам месяца. После достижения уровня 1.20 график пары EUR/USD скорректировал свое положение до отметки 1.1967. Эксперты отмечают, что единой европейской валюте оказывают поддержку опубликованные предварительные данные по деловой активности еврозоны и Германии. Согласно оценкам экспертов, крупнейшая экономика Европы указывает в сентябре на значительное ускорение темпов роста деловой активности в производственном секторе – до максимального уровня с апреля 2011 года. Значение выросло до 60,6 пункта, тогда как эксперты предполагали подъем индикатора до 59 пунктов. Показатель сектора услуг продемонстрировал подъем до 55,6 пункта, что гораздо лучше ожиданий рынка.
Тем временем композитный индекс деловой активности в еврозоне также обнадежил инвесторов. Деловая активность в производственном секторе на максимуме за последние 6,5 лет. Сектор услуг продолжает стремительное развитие, в результате чего композитный индекс поднялся до отметки 56,7.
Рынок ожидал с нетерпением выступление главы ЕЦБ Марио Драги. По всей вероятности, коррекция пары произошла именно поэтому. Инвесторы ждали комментарии относительно будущего курса монетарной политики. Однако больше внимания господин Драги уделил вопросам безработицы среди молодежи в регионе. В любом случае, было указано на продолжение стремительного роста экономики еврозоны, что окажет дополнительную поддержку паре EUR/USD не только до конца сегодняшних торгов, но и в начале следующей недели. https://www.instaforex.com

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Pound Extends Decline Amid U.K. PM Theresa May's Brexit Speech

The pound continued to be lower against its major counterparts in early New York deals on Friday, following remarks by the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May hinting at the departure from the European Union by March 2019.

“We are moving through a new and critical period in the history of the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union. The British people have decided to leave the EU and be a global free-trading nation able to chart our own way in the world,” May said at a speech in Florence.

The UK membership in the European Union will end on March 29, 2019, she told. Neither the UK nor the EU could implement a new smooth relationship at that point.

May said that it is impossible to have all the advantages of the single market with none of the disadvantages. Hence, a “creative” economic partnership was needed, she told.

Data from the Confederation of British Industry showed that UK manufacturers’ order books softened in September but both total orders and export orders remained strong.

According to the latest monthly Industrial Trends Survey, a net balance of 7 percent of manufacturers said order books were above normal but it was below August’s 13 percent.

The pound has been trading in a negative territory in the European session.

The pound weakened to 1.3527 against the greenback, after having advanced to a 2-day high of 1.3596 at 2:00 am ET. The pound is likely to find support around the 1.34 area.

The pound reversed from an early high of 152.79 against the Japanese yen, falling to a 2-day low of 151.17.Continuation of the pound’s downtrend may see it challenging support around the 146.00 area.

The pound slipped to 1.3074 against the Swiss franc, from a high of 1.3185 hit at 5:30 pm ET. The currency is poised to target 1.29 as the next support level.

The pound dipped to a 2-day low of 0.8869 against the euro, following an uptick to 0.8787 at 5:00 pm ET. The next possible support for the pound is seen around the 0.90 mark.

Flash data from IHS Markit showed that the eurozone private sector ended the third quarter on a strong note in September, with growth in activity picking up to its highest since May.

The headline composite output index rose unexpectedly to 56.7 in September from 55.7 in August. The expected score was 55.6.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 22, 2017

USDJPYM30.png

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair retreated from 112.75 and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period one. The relative strength index is showing downside momentum.

To conclude, as long as 112.35 is not surpassed, look for a further drop to 111.60. A break below this level would trigger a new decline to 111.20.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 112.35 with a target at 112.50.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.35, Take Profit: 111.60

Resistance levels: 113.30, 113.75 and 114.15 Support Levels: 111.60, 111.20, 110.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com

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Norges Bank Unlikely To Hike Rates In Near Future: Capital Economics

Norway’s interest rate increases seem very far with inflation likely to remain below the central bank’s target in the medium term and a cooling housing market environment, Jack Allen, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Norges Bank retained its key policy rate at 0.50 percent in a unanimous vote on September 21 and hinted that the rate will remain at current level in the period ahead.

Looking ahead, the bank sees the risks to its forecast that annual mainland GDP growth will remain around 2 percent over the next few years as balanced.

The latest survey indicators suggest that growth will pick up, but slower growth in housing market activity will weigh on housing investment.

Meanwhile, continued weak wage growth and the recent rise in the Krone exchange rate forced bank to push its inflation forecast in 2018 down slightly.

But, the bank nudged up its forecast for inflation by the end of 2019, nonetheless well below the 2.5 percent target.

Based on this given aspects, the Norges Bank increased its interest rate forecast slightly, implying that it will begin tightening monetary policy mid-way through 2019, the economist said.

By contrast, Capital Economics expects that the bank will wait until 2020.

“Meanwhile, significant risks remain in the housing market,” Allen pointed out.

House price inflation has slowed even more sharply than the Norges Bank anticipated, after macro-prudential regulations were implemented in January to tackle the risk of a bubble.

“To be clear, we don’t expect a crash in the housing market, as the fundamental forces that have pushed house prices up are likely to remain in place,” Allen said.

“…But there is clearly a risk that things turn out worse than expected.”

That would cause the economic recovery to slow, and so warrant lower interest rates, the economist added.

Capital Economics has penciled in the first hikes for 2020, much later than the consensus forecast, Allen said.

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Быки вернулись на сырьевой рынок (22.09.2017)



Котировки черного золота сегодня близки к тому, чтобы завершить торговую неделю в плюсе. Нефть марки WTI поднялась выше уровня $50,60 за баррель, сейчас идет незначительная коррекция цен на сырье. Аналитики предполагают, что сланцевая нефть завершит торговую неделю вблизи отметки $50,40. Сегодня также ожидается публикация от Baker Hughes по буровой активности. На прошлой неделе данные указали на сокращение буровых установок на нефть в США. Это послужило неким сигналом к возможному сокращению добычи нефти в стране.
Тем временем североморский эталон также торгуется вблизи апрельского максимума, на уровне $56,39 за баррель. Сегодня участники рынка ожидают заседание технического комитета ОПЕК в Вене, где обсудят присоединение к договору по ограничению добычи нефти двух стран – Нигерии и Ливии. В любом случае, как отмечают эксперты, присоединение нефтяных государств поспособствует большей реализации договора ОПЕК+.
Стоит отметить, что восходящий тренд возобновился и у сырьевых валют. Пара USD/RUB ощущает медвежье наступление и торгуется сегодня у отметки 57.56. Причины давления на доллар очевидны. Это прежде всего рост котировок на нефть, а также приближение старта налогового периода в РФ, который начнется на следующей неделе.
Дополнительный спрос на российские активы объясняется и весьма успешным ходом аукциона по федеральным займам (ОФЗ) от Минфина. Российские долговые бумаги обеспечивают инвесторам 7–10% годового дохода.
Стоит отметить, что приближается и налоговый период в стране. Это означает, что на следующей торгового неделе российская национальная валюта будет торговаться на максимальных уровнях против доллара США. Эксперты также уверены, что и нефть на следующей неделе будет продолжать расти. https://www.instaforex.com

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